Sunday, September 22, 2013

What the U.S. Won’t Discuss

In the United States, the dominant narrative about the use of drones in Pakistan is of a “surgically precise” and effective tool that makes the U.S. safer by enabling “targeted killings” of terrorists, with minimal downsides or collateral damage. This narrative is false.
After nine months of research, two investigations in Pakistan, and more than 130 interviews with victims, witnesses, journalists, humanitarian workers and medical doctors, we found significant evidence of harmful civilian impacts of drone policies.
It is almost impossible to have an informed debate, because the government tries to shield its program from democratic accountability.
First, there are civilian deaths and injuries; 474 to 881 civilians have been killed by drones in Pakistan since 2004, according to the most reliable available estimates.
Second, U.S. drone strikes cause considerable harm to the daily lives of ordinary civilians. Civilians face the constant worry that a strike may be fired at any moment – at someone’s home or car, or at a school, mosque or market. Civilians and even humanitarian workers are afraid to assist victims for fear they may be killed in a second strike.
Third, publicly available evidence that the strikes have made the U.S. safer is ambiguous at best: they have certainly killed alleged combatants, but the number of “high-level” targets killed is estimated at just 2 percent, and there is evidence that strikes have motivated further attacks.
Fourth, U.S. practices undermine respect for the rule of law and international legal protections, and may set dangerous precedents for other governments. Do we want a world in which governments are permitted to track down their enemies in any other nation, and target and kill them, with no real oversight or accountability? Even a brief thought experiment along those lines becomes very frightening, very quickly.
What should be done? The U.S. should conduct a fundamental re-evaluation of current targeted killings practices, taking into account all available evidence, the concerns of all relevant stakeholders, and the short- and long-term costs and benefits. These stakeholders must include the Pakistani civilians directly affected by drones.
Today, it is almost impossible to have an informed public debate about U.S. policies on drone warfare – primarily because of efforts by the government to shield its targeted killings program from democratic accountability. The U.S. should release Department of Justice memorandums outlining the legal basis for targeted killings, make public critical information about U.S. policies, ensure independent investigations into drone strike deaths (with prosecutions, as appropriate) and establish compensation programs for affected civilians.

Thursday, August 1, 2013

State of higher education


The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) recently published a special report on ‘Higher Education in South Asia’. According to this report, higher education in South Asia is at a crossroads.

Driven by a confluence of demographic, political and economic factors, governments across the region are recognising the need for higher education as a matter of global competitiveness, and as an important catalyst towards the development of a knowledge economy.

The issues are all very similar and the main challenge to increase accessibility to higher education. With an increasing middle-class population, the rising demand for higher education is currently not being met, despite its growing importance on the economic development agenda. Already struggling to meet the demand of its 318 million 15-24 year olds in 2010, South Asia will add another 15 million to the pool by 2020, according to projections by the UN.

With this increase, it also becomes necessary for governments to ensure equitable access so that those who are disadvantaged economically or on the basis of their gender have equal access and opportunities in higher education. A major barrier in many of these countries is that of physical access.

Despite the rapid urbanisation that is taking place in some of these countries, poor infrastructure leads to remote and rural populations facing difficulties in accessing higher education. However, distance learning and online or e-learning could work well in some countries, particularly those with high mobile penetration rates – such as India and Pakistan. The private sector has the potential to increase and improve the quality of higher education provided robust regulation is enforced to stop the growth of substandard institutions.

Increased access may also lead to high unemployment especially if there is a disconnect between the needs of the market and the courses offered. As a result, issues of skill gaps, skill shortages and unemployable graduates still persist. There is, therefore, much benefit in involving the employment sector in curriculum and programme development. There is also need for industrial representation in the governing bodies of universities and regulatory bodies.

The second challenge is that of quality. A major boost is that there is a new generation of PhD-degree holders and local talent to bolster the ranks of academic leadership. However, South Asian universities still rank poorly globally, with the exception of India and Pakistan.

If gains are to be made in quality education, there is need to de-politicise and de-bureaucratise the higher education sector and make it autonomous, like higher education reforms in Pakistan. India and Bangladesh are in the process of passing new legislation to restructure their university grants commission into higher education commissions – much like what Pakistan did in 2002.

The third challenge is that of relevance of research in building a knowledge economy. With a few exceptions (most notably India’s elite Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) and Indian Institutes of Management), the postgraduate education landscape in South Asia is at an early stage of development. Research-based postgraduate programmes and universities are in short supply, a symptom of the region’s reliance on teaching-focused colleges.

However, despite this deficiency, Pakistan has demonstrated a surge in research, with a 50 percent increase in the number of research publications within the last two years – the second-highest increase worldwide – and has started developing its higher education sector as a regional knowledge hub, in the manner of countries such as Malaysia and Turkey.

The country has also made remarkable progress recently with the launching of ‘outreach, research, innovation and commercialisation programmes’, and establishing ‘business and IT incubators’, which will help take the economy to a higher trajectory. Pakistan aspires for its higher education sector to become a regional hub and a knowledge economy.

The final challenge is that of funding. Commenting on Pakistan, the report says that after a large boost in funding between 2002 and 2008, the HEC’s budget was drastically slashed in 2009 and universities were told to reduce their dependence on the government and generate their own funding. Only recently has the new government boosted funding to the higher education sector by 10 percent.

India, on the other hand, has recognized the importance of higher education and therefore the central government’s economic strategy, the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12), included a nine-fold increase in public spending on tertiary education. India is the only country in South Asia to have done this.

Even in the current financial year, India has approved an 18 percent increase in its higher education budget. Some estimates say that India will need a thousand new universities by 2020 if it is to meet its current development goals. The most immediate manifestation of this is the renewed drive to boost capacity and find new ways of injecting funds into the higher education sector.

However, increased funding alone is insufficient to improve university quality; effective governance and management of institutions is equally important, and the two must work together in tandem. In recent years, Pakistan has embarked on a university leadership and governance programme in which the HEC provides training through foreign partners to newly-inducted vice chancellors and senior management of the universities to build up their capacities.

The EIU report concludes by emphasising that empowering higher education commissions and universities by giving them more autonomy, good governance and increased funding will go a long way in enhancing the quality of education and developing the region as a knowledge economy.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

The making of an Asian tiger


The remarkable economic success of the ‘Asian Tigers’ (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong) has long fascinated the world, Asia in particular. The Asian Tigers resurfaced during the May general election campaigns, when PML-N chief Mian Nawaz Sharif claimed that if voted into power, his party would make Pakistan an Asian Tiger.

How did the Asian Tigers become an economic success story? This question warrants an overview of the public policies that facilitated their fast and sustained economic growth. Initially, the policies and economic plans adopted by the Asian Tigers were not much different from the policies and plans pursued by Pakistan. For example, South Korea started its journey towards economic takeoff with import substitution.

It is said that South Korea even followed the initial development plans of Pakistan. But then the roads diverged. The Asian Tigers sustained their economic growth at least for three decades since their takeoff in the 1960s whereas our economic growth proceeded in fits and starts. The Asian Tigers witnessed, on average, more than a seven percent growth rate between 1960 and 1990. In 1990, their share in the economy of the developing world was almost 34 percent.

Several explanations have been put forth for the unprecedented economic growth of these countries. Literature on this subject traces the roots of their economic takeoff to the colonial period. Umesh C Gulati, in ‘The foundations of economic growth: the case of four tigers’, writes that Korea and Taiwan witnessed much higher economic growth rates under the Japanese than did India under the British rule during 1910-1945. While India experienced long stagnation in the first half of the 20th century, the economic growth rates in Korea and Taiwan were slightly higher than even their coloniser, ie Japan.

Professor Dani Rodrik has also emphasised the role of ‘initial conditions’ in their economic takeoff. According to Professor Rodrik, education and human development indicators of these countries were much higher compared to other developing countries even prior to their economic takeoff. Distribution of land and income was comparatively more equitable due to early land reforms.

The argument goes that the economic miracle of the Asian Tigers was mainly due to their ‘initial conditions’. Skilled workforce and comparatively equitable distribution of resources provided an impetus to the growth process. Politico-strategic factors are also cited as an explanation for the Asian economic miracle. Three arguments are cited to support this thesis.

First, the US provided firm support to South Korea and Taiwan due to its geopolitical interests in the region. Second, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore enjoyed a great deal of political freedom to deal with the rent-seeking preferences of the bureaucrats and other vested groups due to authoritarian regimes in these countries.

Park Chung-hee in Korea and Chiang Kai-shek in Taiwan are particularly credited with steering these countries out of poverty and put them on the path of sustainable growth. Third, timely land reforms in South Korea and Taiwan helped eliminate a potential source of opposition to industrial initiatives. According to Joseph Stiglitz, land reforms were also vital in the initial stages of development at least from three angles.

First, land reforms increased rural productivity and income, increasing domestic savings as a result. Second, higher incomes resulted in higher demand for goods. This was needed before finding demand for goods in the outside world in the form of exports. Third, redistribution of income contributed to political stability, an important factor for creating an environment for domestic and foreign investment. Political stability, vision of the leadership, support of the US, and ‘growth with equity’ were factors that helped achieve sustained economic growth in these countries.

The third broad explanation for the economic success of the Asian Tigers is the proactive role of the state in economic development. The governments of these countries made liberal use of industrial policies. They invested in ports, transportation, and telecommunication. For example, Singapore focused on an adequate supply of electricity and on developing an effective telecommunications system that proved instrumental in making it a financial hub.

The governments of these countries created markets rather than replacing them. For example, postal saving banks were created to channelise domestic savings and development banks were established for the rationing of credit on the basis of well-defined and transparent parameters.

Priority industries were given preferential access to capital, credit and foreign exchange. The governments also provided subsidies, such as provision of credit at lower interest rate, to the favoured industries. “Governments actively encouraged firms to export. Exports provided a performance-based criterion for allocating credit, encouraged the adoption of international standards, and accelerated the diffusion of technology. Contests among exporters were widely used as incentive devices,” wrote Professor Stiglitz in one of his articles.

Now the question is: what lessons can we learn from the development stories of the Asian Tigers? First of all, we need to appreciate that much of their focus was on the development of human resources by investing in education and training of their people. For example, in South Korea, the expenditure per student at the primary level increased by 355 percent (in real terms) from 1970 to 1989, whereas in our case, the increase was just 13 percent during the same period. We need to realise that our people are our real asset. The youth bulge can become our competitive advantage if we invest in human resource. But unfortunately our public spending on education, training and health of the people is perhaps among the lowest in the world.

Equitable distribution of resources and incomes, on the pattern of the Asian Tigers, is a must for political stability. In our case, both regional and class gaps have widened with the passage of time. Wide economic and social disparities can never result in sustainable growth. Three areas can be considered for policy focus to ensure equitable economic growth. First, effective land reforms; second, highly progressive taxation and increasing social security nets; and third, huge investments in education and training of the youth.

Unfortunately, in our case, land reforms failed to bring about any visible change in the economic and political landscape of the country. Taxation, though progressive in theory, failed to redistribute resources mainly due to a narrow tax base, huge exemptions, and policy bias towards indirect taxation (sales tax, customs etc).

To follow in the footsteps of the Asian Tigers, we need to invest more in education and training. For an export-push strategy, like the one followed by the Asian Tigers, we need to identify some niche areas for exports. Integration with the world economy is possible by diversifying our exports as well as their destinations. This means that we will have to go the extra mile to deepen trade relations with our regional partners.

We need to fix our tax system to raise revenues required for investment in infrastructure. Improving the investment climate is also highly important to attract domestic and foreign investment. We need to take steps to harness the dynamism of the private sector, which should be in the driving seat of the economy since economic growth led by the private sector can guarantee employment opportunities for the youth. Growth without jobs is not long lasting, and sustainable economic growth should become an overarching priority for our rulers.

If our political elite show a long-term commitment to economic and political reforms, and remain undeterred in the face of pangs that arise out of the reform process, Pakistan has every potential to emerge as an Asian Tiger.

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Indian dam-building

As if in response to Pakistan’s attempts to try to woo it, India has announced the building of a dam on the Chenab five times bigger the Baglihar Dam. The Paakal Dal Dam, a hydroelectric project to be completed in 4 years, has attracted no objection from the Pakistani Indus Water Commissioner, even though it represents another violation of the Indus Waters Basin Treaty. India has lined up the finances for the project, which it will begin next month and build on a fast track, from international finance institutions. This is probably the flip side of the decision by the World Bank not to ask for an Indian NOC before providing Pakistan aid for the Bhasha-Diamer Dam, as disclosed by federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar while speaking to journalists on Tuesday.
The problem of water theft by India will only be solved by a solution to the Kashmir problem. Apart from the political problem of relations between the two neighbours, the solution of the Kashmir issue in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiri people would also ensure that the artificial separation between the Indus and its head waters would be ended. However, former Foreign Minister Sardar Aseff Ahmed Ali said while speaking at a Press Institute of Pakistan seminar on Tuesday that the present government was not focusing on the real issues. Without pointing out that he also avoided them as Benazir Bhutto’s Foreign Minister in 1993-6, it must be noted that because India is allowed to get away with not talking about Kashmir, but to discuss whatever else it wants, Pakistan not only fails to make known its unease over India making permanent changes to water sources, but also it fails to come close to making India discuss the implementation of the UN resolutions on Kashmir, and let India ride roughshod over all dialogue and talk only about issues of its interest.
It has been predicted often enough that the next wars will be over water. Pakistan and India have been to war thrice in the past, and now any confrontation might be nuclear. Therefore, solving the Kashmir issue has become all the more necessary. The only way out is for Pakistan to make it clear to India it will not talk about any other issue, without talking about Kashmir first. The water issue is one of a number of issues related to Kashmir, and solving the Kashmir issue means solving a whole host of issues.